BRASÍLIA, October 23 (Aalimi Nation) – Brazil votes on Sunday, October 25, in a presidential run-off between leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, with the final opinion polls showing a race too close to call.

The winner will serve a four-year term beginning on January 5, 2027. Polls open at 8 am and close at 5 pm Brasília time, and the electoral court is due to begin publishing the national count at 5 pm.

Brazil run-off: where the polls stand

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, of the Liberal Party, finished first in the October 4 round with about 47 per cent of the vote, while Lula, 80, of the Workers' Party, took just over 45 per cent. Neither cleared the majority needed to win outright.

Since then the gap has narrowed. A Datafolha survey published on Thursday showed a 50-50 split of valid votes, within its two-point margin of error. A Quaest poll released on October 21 had Bolsonaro at 45 per cent and Lula at 44. A Vox Brasil survey put Lula narrowly ahead, 50.6 to 49.4 per cent. Averages of the latest surveys put Bolsonaro at about 51 per cent and Lula at 49, though pollsters have noted that the leads are inside the margins of error.

The candidates and the stakes

Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. His campaign has pointed to falling unemployment and poverty and to progress on curbing deforestation in the Amazon. Since the first round, he has promised free public transport on weekends.

Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is campaigning on a tougher approach to crime, spending restraint and constitutional changes he has described as a way to "redemocratise" the country. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for his role in a coup plot after the 2022 election. His son has said he would work for his release if elected.

The race has been marked by sharp exchanges. At a debate on October 18 the two men traded insults and corruption accusations. A banking scandal involving the disgraced financier Daniel Vorcaro has drawn in figures from across the political spectrum, including, according to coverage of the case, Flavio Bolsonaro and several Supreme Court members.

Outside voices

Foreign governments have also entered the debate. US President Donald Trump called Bolsonaro's first-round lead "a big victory". Brazil's foreign ministry described remarks by Argentine President Javier Milei as a "new and unacceptable attempt at external interference in the Brazilian democratic process". Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira called an offer by Bolsonaro's transition team to the US government "a very bad sign".

How voting works

Voting is compulsory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70 and optional for 16- and 17-year-olds, people over 70 and those who cannot read. Only valid votes count, so blank and spoiled ballots are excluded from the percentages. Abstention in the first round was 21.08 per cent, the highest for a first round since 1998.

In the 2022 run-off the winner was clear about three hours after polls closed. Officials have said partial counts are not forecasts, because states report at different speeds.