MUMBAI, October 26 (Aalimi Nation) – Indian equity markets enter Monday's session under pressure from a surge in crude oil prices, after the benchmark indices fell for a fourth straight day on Friday and recorded their steepest weekly losses in some time.

The Sensex closed Friday at 73,123.83, down 0.17 per cent, while the Nifty 50 ended at 22,600, down 0.39 per cent. For the week, the Nifty lost 546.15 points, or 2.36 per cent, and the Sensex shed 1,605.44 points, or 2.15 per cent, according to exchange data. The Nifty touched an intraday low of 22,372 on Friday, and the Bank Nifty closed near 54,300 after its own fourth consecutive decline.

Brent crude is trading at about $114 to $115 a barrel, a five-month high, as traders weigh fears of supply disruption in the Middle East. Higher oil prices matter for India because the country imports most of its crude, which widens the import bill and adds to inflation concerns.

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services said Indian markets are likely to stay weak amid heightened geopolitical tensions and rising crude prices, which are fuelling worries about inflation. Selling was broad on Friday, with every sectoral index in the red. Metal, realty and public sector bank shares were the biggest laggards, while consumption and information technology stocks fell by less. Mid-cap and small-cap shares have also seen persistent selling.

Early indicators pointed to a flat-to-lower start for the Nifty on Monday, with the GIFT Nifty quoted near 22,600 and Asian markets trading lower.

Pabitro Mukherjee of Bajaj Broking Research said that a fall below Friday's low of 22,372 would open the way towards 22,180, the monthly low. If the index holds above that level, he said, it could stay in a range of 22,370 to 22,850 over the coming week, with resistance at 22,850 and then 23,175. For the Bank Nifty, he pointed to support at 54,000 and resistance at 55,150. These are analysts' technical views, not forecasts from the exchanges or regulators.

Background and what to watch

The Reserve Bank of India kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent in its June policy, citing uncertainty from the conflict in West Asia. It raised its inflation projection for the fiscal year to 5.1 per cent from 4.6 per cent and cut its growth forecast to 6.6 per cent from 6.9 per cent. A sustained rise in oil prices could complicate that outlook, since higher fuel costs tend to feed into transport and food prices.

Attention this week will also turn to the primary market. The record public offer by Jio Platforms, which drew bids of more than 21 times the shares on offer, is tentatively due to list on October 28, and investors will watch how it trades against a weak backdrop. Beyond that, the direction of crude oil, corporate earnings releases and the pace of foreign investor activity are likely to set the tone for Indian equities.